Determination, through a Probabilistic Model, of the Market

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Summary: Law / on Public Sector Contracts, in force since March , , when analyzing abnormally low offers, contemplates the need – among others – to verify that the prices offered are not below market (article d). This is especially complicated when it comes to verifying certain man/hour prices, for disparate professional profiles, in service files in which labor costs can reach the total cost of the contract. To try to respond to this problem, we propose here the use of a probabilistic, non-deterministic statistical model, based on the well-known “Monte Carlo Simulation”. Keywords: Market price, risk, range, direct cost, indirect cost, industrial profit, annual capacity, average market value, contracting body, technical body, Monte Carlo Simulation, Crystal Ball©. INTRODUCTION.

The objective of this article is to propose a procedure that allows us to comply with the provisions of article of Law /, of November , on Public Sector Contracts, by which the Directives are transposed into the Spanish legal system. of the European Parliament and of the Council //EU and //EU, of February , The Canada Mobile Number List publication of the aforementioned Law has meant a -degree turn when it comes to verifying the viability of offers that are presumed to be abnormal. In this sense, environmental, labor, social, price factors, applicable collective agreements, etc., take on transcendental importance when deciding whether an offer can be considered viable. Specifically, we are going to focus on an aspect that raises numerous unknowns regarding its calculation and application: the market price, and especially, on this price applied to service contracts in which the man/hour cost , staff remuneration, represents a very high relative percentage – if not % – of the total cost of the contract. J



Let us assume for this a service file subject to bidding where the percentage corresponding to the man/hour cost represents % of the cost of the service to be contracted. Once the presumption of an abnormally low offer from any of the bidding companies has been noted, we will ask them to justify and provide a reasoned and detailed breakdown of the low level of the prices offered by presenting relevant information and documents. Therefore, for these purposes, we will apply article of the LCSP: “When the contracting table, or failing that the contracting body, has identified one or more offers subject to a presumption of abnormality, it must require the bidder or bidders who submitted them, giving them sufficient time to justify and provide a reasoned and detailed breakdown of the price. level of prices, or costs, or any other parameter based on which the abnormality of the offer has been defined, by presenting the information and documents that are relevant for these purposes.